Researchers of XJTU’s School of Mathematics establish a model to estimate transmission risk of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia

January 28, 2020  Click:[]




A dynamic transmission model was established to estimate the transmission risk of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (2019-nCov) by researchers of Xi’an Jiaotong University, Shaanxi Normal University, and York University, Canada. Based on related data and experience in estimating the transmission risk of SARS in 2003, biomathematics researchers explored the 2019-nCov’s mechanisms of transmission, taking into considerationrelevant isolationprinciples and travel restrictions, and established the model. Relevant data from January 10-22, 2020 were used in this research. “The estimation results based on likelihood and model analysis reveal that the control reproduction number may be as high as 6.47 (95% CI 5.71-7.23).” Researchers estimated the peak of the outbreak and analyzed the transmission risk of the disease. Results are in the paper Estimation of the transmission risk of 2019-nCov and its implication for public health interventions.  


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